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The Risk/Benefit Yardsticks Were Just Moved Off the Field: How Technological Convergence Renders Current Risk Assessment Models Obsolete, and What to Do About It

Douglas Mulhall

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Focus is Needed
These are not the only examples of problems that we can fix, but they are big ones that have a huge impact. We need to take a Mulhall crack at showing some intelligence about these things right now in order to demonstrate to these superior beings that we are actually worth keeping around. Incremental changes are insufficient as the future is flying at us at great speed. Before we know it, we will have to explain ourselves to something that is just as smart as or smarter than we are.

We need big thinking now. We need to attack the big problems in our society with the tools that we have at our disposal right now. We need to get our act together and focus on a few selected areas instead of just biting around the edges.

Replace Oil
First, I suggest that we replace oil now. Why not do it? We have the technology to do it and many emerging technologies will make it even easier.

One example is a company named Nanosolar in Silicon Valley that will soon roll out a nano-structured solar cell that, according to published news reports, has at least three major innovations. The first innovation is quantum dots that absorb solar energy, including from the infrared spectrum, from all directions (not just unidirectional), which makes it incredibly efficient. The second innovation is that it is contained on a super-thin film that can be rolled up, eliminating the need for these nonsensically huge, heavy panels that many cities will not approve because they violate space ordinances. Nanosolar has also made it about five times more efficient and cheaper than any solar cell on the market today, which makes it more cost-effective - without any subsidies - than coal-fired and oil-fired energy.

Replace Animal Protein
We should also replace animal protein as a major food source. Technology is allowing us to begin to grow meat with artificial processes. We will not need to kill billions of animals any more or keep them around in horrible conditions. The technology is here in some areas, and if we focus on it and invest in it, we could really accelerate it.

Eradicate Diseases
The third change that we must make is to fix the very worst diseases. At the end of our book, Our Molecular Future, we asked what we should focus all of our new wonderful technologies on. We came to the conclusion that what is most needed is an approach to human welfare that provides the greatest benefit for the most people in the shortest period of time. This is necessary to counteract the many fear-mongering headlines about artificially enhanced humans. We need to generate hope and confidence so that people will not get swept up in the backlash against scientific research and development in nanotechnology and transhumanism.

We must develop a hopeful scenario so that if something does go wrong with nanotechnology, which it inevitably will, we are there first with the solution that has given people hope. Then people will acknowledge the mishap, but they will also remember that the technology has saved billions of lives and so it is worth the risk. We must be proactive with a big idea right now.

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